Medium and long-term impact of SARS on total factor productivity（TFP): Empirical evidence from Chinese industrial enterprises.

This study examines the impact of the 2003 SARS epidemic on the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese industrial enterprises using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The results exhibit that SARS significantly reduces TFP by 3.12-5.81%, lasting for three to five years. Further, this impact is heterogeneous across industries. A significantly negative impact is found in labor intensive industries, while capital and technology intensive industries is less affected. Contrarily, a significantly positive impact is observed in those industries necessary for life and production. Mechanism tests show that the impact on TFP is caused by a reduction in labour productivity and a decrease in innovation investment after SARS outbreak. This study highlights the importance of more targeted policy on Covid-19 and similar epidemics both in industrial, national and international level.

Transmission dynamics and successful control measures of SARS-CoV-2 in the mega-size city of Guangzhou, China.

ABSTRACT: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has caused a worldwide pandemic. Control measures differ among countries and have a varying degree of effectiveness, which requires assessment. To evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Guangzhou by 3 periods according to interventions: January 7 to 22 (no intervention), January 23 to February 23 (implemented intensive interventions), and February 24 to May 17 (the normalization mode of COVID-19 prevention and control).We collected the information of 745 COVID-19 patients and their close contacts as well as control measures in Guangzhou from January 7 to May 17, 2020. We estimated the epidemiological characteristics, disease spectrum of COVID-19 cases, key time-to-event intervals, and effective reproduction number over the 3 periods. The basic reproduction number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was also calculated over period 1.Approximately 45.8%, 49.8%, and 4.4% of cases from close contacts were asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe, respectively. The median incubation period was 5.3 days (the percentiles of 2.5-97.5, 1.5-18.4 days) and the median serial interval fitted with gamma distribution was 5.1 days (the percentiles of 2.5-97.5, 0.8-15.9 days). The estimated median of onset-to-quarantined time in Period 1 to 3 were 7.5, 3.4, and 2.9 days (the percentiles of 2.5-97.5, 2.1-14.2, 3.9-14.7, and 6.0-20.0 days) respectively and the median of onset-to-confirmation time in period 1 to 3 were 8.9, 4.9 and 2.4 days (the percentiles of 2.5-97.5, 2.6-16.6, 0.9-14.6, and 0.5-11.8 days). In period 1, the reproduction number was 0.9 (95% confidence interval, 0.5-1.4) and fluctuated below 1.0 before January 22 except for January 14. The effective reproduction number gradually decreased in the period 2 with the lowest point of 0.1 on February 20, then increased again since March 27 and reach a spike of 1.8 on April 12. The number decreased to below 1.0 after April 17 and decreased further to <0.2 after May 7 in the period 3.Under prospective dynamic observation, close contacts turned into infected cases could provide a spectrum of COVID-19 cases from real-world settings. The lockdown of Wuhan and closed-loop management of people arriving Guangzhou were effective in halting the spread of the COVID-19 cases to Guangzhou. The spread of COVID-19 was successfully controlled in Guangzhou by social distancing, wearing a face mask, handwashing, disinfection in key places, mass testing, extensive contact tracing, and strict quarantine of close contacts.

Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a mid-size city of China.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of pneumonia, COVID-19 associated with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan city and then rapidly spread to other cities. Wenzhou is located approximately 900 km from Wuhan, which was experiencing an outbreak that was severe at the time but is considered modest as the epidemic became a pandemic. We described the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 outside of the epicenter to help understand the transmission pattern in a mid-sized Chinese city. METHODS: To investigate the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19, we described case series of 473 patients with confirmed COVID-19 in Wenzhou, China from January 27 to March 16, 2020. We described the public health interventions of COVID-19 and evaluated the effect of interventions by the effective reproduction number (Rt). RESULTS: The median age of all patients was 47.6 years, 48.4% of whom were female. 33.8% of the patients had a history of residence in Wuhan. Fever (71.7%) and cough (43.1%) were the most common symptoms. In addition, three kinds of unconventional cases were observed, namely 4.9% asymptomatic patients, 7.6% confirmed patients who had no link to Wuhan city but contact with individuals from Wuhan without any symptoms at the time of contact, and 12.9% confirmed patients who had an unknown source of transmission. We estimated that the basic reproductive number (R0) was 2.75 (95% CI: 2.37-3.23). The Rt fluctuated within the range of 2.50 to 3.74 from January 11 to January 16 while gradually reached a peak of 3.74 on January 16. Rt gradually decreased after January 16 and decreased to 1.00 on January 30. Rt continually decreased and reached the lowest point (0.03) on February 21, 2020. CONCLUSION: Our study presented the possibility of asymptomatic carriers affected with SARS-CoV-2, and transmission by these three kinds of unconventional patients in Wenzhou may be an important characteristic of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The evaluation showed that a series of multifaceted interventions proved effective in controlling the epidemic of COVID-19. These findings might provide valuable examples of control policies for countries or areas in combatting the global pandemic of COVID-19.

The evidence of indirect transmission of SARS-CoV-2 reported in Guangzhou, China.

BACKGROUND: More than 2 months have passed since the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) first emerged in Wuhan, China. With the migration of people, the epidemic has rapidly spread within China and throughout the world. Due to the severity of the epidemic, undiscovered transmission of COVID-19 deserves further investigation. The aim of our study hypothesized possible modes of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and how the virus may have spread between two family clusters within a residential building in Guangzhou, China. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, we monitored and traced confirmed patients and their close contacts from January 11 to February 5, 2020 in Guangzhou, China, including 2 family cluster cases and 61 residents within one residential building. The environmental samples of the building and the throat swabs from the patients and from their related individuals were collected for SARS-CoV-2 and tested with real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The relevant information was collected and reported using big data tools. RESULTS: There were two notable family cluster cases in Guangzhou, which included 3 confirmed patients (family No.1: patient A, B, C) and 2 confirmed patients (family No.2: patient D, E), respectively. None of patients had contact with other confirmed patients before the onset of symptoms, and only patient A and patient B made a short stop in Wuhan by train. Home environment inspection results showed that the door handle of family No.1 was positive of SARS-CoV-2. The close contacts of the 5 patients all tested negative of SARS-CoV-2 and in good health, and therefore were released after the official medical observation period of 14-days. Finally, according to the traceability investigation through applying big data analysis, we found an epidemiological association between family No.1 and family No.2, in which patient D (family No.2) was infected through touching an elevator button contaminated by snot with virus from patient A (family No.1) on the same day. CONCLUSIONS: Contaminants with virus from confirmed patients can pollute the environment of public places, and the virus can survive on the surface of objects for a short period of time. Therefore, in addition to the conventional droplet transmission, there is also indirect contact transmission such as snot-oral transmission that plays a crucial role in community spread of the virus.

COVID-19: asymptomatic carrier transmission is an underestimated problem.

At the present time, COVID-19 is spreading rapidly [1]. The global prevention and control of COVID-19 is focused on the estimation of the relevant incubation period, basic reproduction number (R0), effective reproduction number (Rt) and death risk. Although the prevention and control of COVID-19 requires a reliable estimation of the relevant incubation period, R0, Rt and death risk. Another key epidemiological parameter-asymptomatic ratio that provides strength and range for social alienation strategies of COVID-19, which is widely defined as the proportion of asymptomatic infections among all disease infections. In fact, the ratio of asymptomatic infection is a useful indicator of the burden of disease and a better measurement of the transmissibility of the virus. So far, people have not paid enough attention to asymptomatic carriers. The asymptomatic carriers discussed in this study are recessive infections, that is, those who have never shown symptoms after onset of infection. We will discuss three aspects: detection, infectivity and proportion of healthy carriers.

Transmission Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a Mid-size City of China (preprint)

Background: An outbreak of pneumonia associated with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan city and then to other city. It is very urgent to delineate the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of these affected patients. Methods: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19, we describe a case series of 459 patients with confirmed COVID-19 in WZ of China from January 27 to February 12, 2020.Results: The median age of all patients was 48.0 years, and 46.8% were females. 37.5% of patients had a history of residence in Wuhan. Fever (72.1%) and cough (43.6%) were the most frequent symptoms. In addition, three kinds of unconventional cases were observed, in which included 4.4% confirmed virus carrier who were asymptomatic, 7.8% confirmed patients who had no link to Wuhan city but contact with individuals from Wuhan without any symptoms at the time of contact, and 10.7% confirmed patients who had no link to Wuhan city nor a history of intimate contact with patients or individuals from Wuhan without any symptoms, respectively.Conclusion: Our findings presented the possibility of asymptomatic carriers affected with SARS-CoV-2, and this phenomenon suggested that chances of uncontrollable transmission in the larger population might be higher than formerly estimated, and transmission by these three kinds of unconventional patients in WZ may be one of the characteristics of infection in other Chinese cities outside the Wuhan epidemic area.